Investors have heard for years that “time in the market” is much more critical to investment success than “timing the market.” The principal reason that “time in the market” is more important than “timing the market” is that few investors (even the best) can predict the turning points in the stock market with any precision or on a sustained basis.
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Few sectors are more impacted by rising interest rates than real estate, affecting everything from home affordability to commercial property valuations. Higher interest rates have been a substantial drag on the sector’s recent performance, and the potential of recession in the second half of 2023 looms as an additional risk facing REIT investors.
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The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) was rooted in an entirely avoidable error. The problem was not with the bonds themselves; it stemmed from sharply rising interest rates, which, as any investor knows, causes the value of bonds to fall.
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As interest rates have increased and the stock market has struggled, the calculus of whether to use fresh cash to retire debt or make an investment has changed.
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The best opportunity for generating alpha may no longer be found in managing relative exposures around a standard benchmark index, but reside in identifying profound and sustainable technological, demographic, social and economic changes that will lead in a new generation of wealth creation.
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